Because the fleet vehicles must be replaced at the end of their useful lifetimes, an analysis of the costs, benefits and possibilities of purchasing smaller EV or hybrid vehicles--20 person vehicles and 6-8 person commuter vans--could show significant emission reductions. In combination with (a) a destination-demand system and (b) autonomous vehicles, the fuel use and operating costs of the system might also be significantly reduced.

The proposed replacement fleet will consist of smaller, electric buses and electric commuter vans, scheduled by a destination demand driven program sized to meet peak travel demand during the day. A "destination demand" systems offers an alternative cyclical shuttle loops that fail to efficiently cover short distances between class locations, often run near-empty on portions of their routes, and run campus loops during periods of low demand. During periods of low demand, vehicles will be grouped at solar recharging sites and will provide battery storage power to the campus as feasible.

A second aspect to be investigated is the possibility of running on-campus autonomous vehicles. While this technology remains highly-experimental, we are beginning to see tests with such vehicles (a small electric, autonomous transit vehicle is scheduled to be put into operation in the near future; see http://phys.org/news/2013-08-trials-singapore-driverless-vehicle.html). Such vehicles, especially if parked at sites around Upper Campus, could rapidly respond to nearby demand. Because the UCSC transit system is largely a “closed” one (with only two entry points) with limited road access, it comprises something like a small city (with 20,000 residents). A pilot autonomous vehicle transit system could well attract considerable outside interest, sponsorship and funding.

The existing fleet of buses and carpool vans consumes about 105,000 gallons of diesel and gasoline per year, leading to greenhouse gas emissions of almost 1,050 metric tons annually. The 2011 Climate Action Plan (http://sustainability.ucsc.edu/governance/plans-reports/climate-action-p...) projects mobile fleet emissions of 2,266-2,593 MT for 2014 and 2,390-2,898 for 2020. Electrification would reduce fleet emissions by 36-44% in 2020 (this is only about 1-1.5% of total projected emissions in 2020, which includes purchased electricity, non-fleet commuters and air travel). If it were possible in the longer run to extend such a system into the city (perhaps in cooperation with the Metro), and displace a significant fraction of non-fleet commuters, the reductions could be much greater. The success of this new transit plan will cut down on independent car emissions as well as road congestion.